Highlights:

• Louisiana has a 40-50 percent chance of above-normal temperatures through November, according to NOAA forecasts
• Cold fronts typically stall north of Louisiana this time of year, with the state not likely to see a true cold front until later in October
• First frost expected between late November and early December based on Old Farmer’s Almanac predictions
• La Niña weather pattern expected to return briefly in fall and early winter, contributing to warmer season
• October typically brings genuine fall sensations with southern Louisiana daytime highs settling between 78°F and 82°F

When Will Fall Weather Arrive in Louisiana for Good?

Here’s what NOAA, Farmers’ Almanacs, and local meteorologists predict for the Fall 2025 season, and how you can prepare.

LAFAYETTE, La. (KPEL News) — With another Louisiana summer come and gone, people across Acadiana keep asking the same question right now: when will we get real fall weather?

October’s here on the calendar, but the Bayou State tells a different story. Federal climate scientists and weather almanacs say we’ve got more waiting to do.

What Louisiana Families Need to Know About Fall 2025

NOAA’s Center for Weather and Climate Prediction says Louisiana and most of the United States will run hotter than average through November. If you’re hoping for an early break from the heat, don’t hold your breath.

October will be warmer than normal across the deep South, including Louisiana, according to The Old Farmer’s Almanac. The north will see below-normal rainfall while the south gets near-normal amounts.

There’s one bright spot for people tired of summer: humidity will drop in the coming weeks. You’ll get some relief even if temperatures stay high.

Why This Fall Will Be Warmer Than Normal

La Niña is the problem. This weather pattern brings warmer winter temperatures to the South, and it’s coming back in the fall and early winter.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says there’s a 71 percent chance of La Niña affecting our weather from October to December 2025. This climate pattern creates warmer and drier conditions across the southern United States, especially in Louisiana.

The weak La Niña means above-average temperatures across the southern U.S., including Louisiana, with drier stretches as we head into late fall and winter.

Timeline: When Louisiana Will Actually Feel Like Fall

Real cool weather is still weeks out, but here’s what to expect based on historical patterns and current forecasts:

Early-to-Mid October: Other parts of the eastern and midwestern U.S. are getting below-average temperatures, but not South Louisiana. Those cooler temperatures haven’t reached us. Lower Louisiana stays in the mid-to-upper 80s with only slight relief in the next few days.

Late October: October brings some fall feelings to Louisiana as the summer heat backs off. Southern Louisiana daytime highs drop to between 78°F and 82°F by month’s end.

November: November gets cooler. In southern areas like Lafayette, daytime highs run between 68°F and 72°F.

Late November to Early December: The Old Farmer’s Almanac says Louisiana’s first frost will likely hit between late November and early December. That’s when winter really starts.

What About Rain and Drought Conditions?

Good news on rain: Louisiana won’t face drought this fall. Most of the state has equal chances for dry or wet conditions. The far southeastern corner—including New Orleans—will likely see above-average rainfall through the rest of the season.

Regional Differences Across Louisiana

Fall weather won’t arrive at the same time across Louisiana:

North Louisiana: Gets cooler temperatures earlier than southern parishes. The northern parts see changing foliage colors in late October through November.

South Louisiana and Coastal Areas: Early fall temperatures stay in the upper 80s but drop as the season goes on. Expect temperatures from the upper 70s to the mid 50s through November.

Acadiana Region: Gets the typical Louisiana autumn—warm days through mid-October with gradually cooling conditions as November hits. Real “sweater weather” won’t stick around until late November or December.

How This Compares to Recent Months

This summer, Louisiana temperatures ran slightly above average. August’s monthly average high hit around 93.7 degrees. But heat advisories and extreme heat warnings in New Orleans and Baton Rouge were lower than previous years, probably because of a wetter summer with near-daily rainstorms.

Temperatures are staying elevated into early October, but the heat stress on residents has been less brutal than in previous summers.

Making the Most of Louisiana’s Extended Warm Season

While we wait for real fall weather, Louisiana’s subtropical climate has some advantages:

• Outdoor festival season continues through October
• Longer growing seasons for gardens and agriculture
• Comfortable football games and tailgating by late October
• Good weather for exploring Louisiana’s cultural attractions without summer’s crushing heat

Surviving Louisiana’s delayed fall takes patience. Autumn in Louisiana is still a good season. Temperatures gradually drop to a comfortable range between 60°F and 80°F as the rain from the wet season backs off and skies clear up.

Bottom line: Real fall weather won’t hit Louisiana until late October at the earliest. Genuine cool temperatures are more likely in November. Above-normal temperatures and a returning La Niña pattern mean Louisiana residents should get ready for an extended summer-like season before real autumn settles over the Bayou State.

Speaking of Fall weather, here's a look at what drives us crazy about Fall in Louisiana.